AN ANALYCAL FORECAST OF NIGERIA-SOUTH AFRICA BI-LATERAL RELATIONS: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

This study examines the bilateral relations between Nigeria and South Africa from 1999 to 2023, using realist theory to analyze the dynamics of their interactions. The study explores how both nations have leveraged their economic and military capabilities to safeguard their national interests within a competitive regional environment. The methodology involves a qualitative analysis of political, economic, and diplomatic documents, along with secondary data from scholarly articles and government reports. The findings reveal that, despite the political and economic ties during the apartheid era, significant disruptions emerged after the end of apartheid, negatively affecting political, diplomatic, socio-cultural, and economic exchanges. Formal diplomatic relations were established in 1994, with High Commissions opened in Pretoria and Lagos. The Bi-National Commission (BNC), founded in 1999, has played a crucial role in strengthening these relations, particularly in the economic and political domains. Notable agreements, such as the Bilateral Trade Agreement, the Reciprocal Promotion and Protection of Investments Agreement, and the Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreement, reflect both countries' commitment to enhancing bilateral ties. Despite these efforts, the study highlights the ongoing competition for regional power, which has led to tensions and conflicts. This rivalry often hampers cooperation on regional and global issues. The study concludes with recommendations for both nations to focus on building mutual trust, enhancing economic cooperation and reducing competitive tensions in order to achieve broader regional and global objectives.